Take the case of Costa Rica . A former President of the Republic, and furthermore a Nobel Peace Prize winner, entered the presidential race. It was felt that his victory was assured. Opinion polls gave him a 20% majority over his closest opponent. Ultimately, he won by a margin of almost 1% over his rival.

Let’s look at one more example. In Brazil , some felt that President Lula da Silva would win the elections from the first round. Once again this was not the case. Electors subjected him to a second round, which he won hands down.

Uncertainty is a part of our everyday lives. The elections referred to here are merely symptomatic of the uncertain times in which we live. Other areas of our daily existence could just as well illustrate this state of affairs.

The notion of uncertainty was ignored for a long time. It now occupies a more important place in our actions and our vision of the world. The Irish playwright Samuel B. Beckett, master of the Theatre of the Absurd along with Eugène Ionesco, was perhaps the first, in 1949, to cause us to reflect on the uncertain in his masterly work Waiting for Godot. As a rule, the characters in Beckett’s plays are plagued by the uncertain. For example, Godot is the mythical figure who is expected, who has announced his arrival, whom everyone awaits… incessantly, and who, ultimately does not come. And the play ends with the bitter taste of the unknown, indeed of the uncertain. At the same time, it shows us that the uncertain is a reality like any other. Through this work, Beckett seeks to propose an alternative to Cartesian logic.

This idea of uncertainty as a tangible reality has come a long way. In some academic circles today, it is one of the pillars of Postmodernism, the trend of thought following on the heels of Modernism. Considering that Modernity, supporting the idea of continuous progress and civilisation, supremely created, predominant in time and space, has erected the frame of the present world on the Cartesian notion of logic, Postmodernists have countered this with a view of the uncertain as a new logic, hitherto discarded as being banal and a notion belonging to persons or communities without a history.

Thereafter, everything that had been acknowledged was challenged. That represented the demise of (modern) Metaphysics, defined as seeking objectivity and truth. Reality in itself does not exist; there are merely representations of it.

Postmodernism has given rise to a very strong and novel historiography that is more integrative and humanising and built on representations. Groups of women, Black communities, immigrants, Latinos and even subordinated countries have begun to discover their memory, as well as a new historical identity and have even become protagonists of history.

Does this mean that humanity has entered a new era of history? From the dominant and universalist modernism to a postmodernism representative of all. Up to now, Postmodernism has not replaced Modernity. Both trends are evolving side by side. This will continue for a long time. Once uncertainty remains a sign of our times, both in elections and everyday life, it will always have need of one movement that will ignore its existence and another that will accept it.

Dr Watson Denis is the Political Adviser of the Secretariat of the Association of Caribbean States. The opinions expressed are not necessarily the official views of the ACS. Comments and reactions can be sent to mail@acs-aec.org

November 9, 2006