In recent years tourism has been one of the most buoyant industries in the world economy. In 2000, international tourist arrivals grew by 7.4 percent--double that of the previous year—reaching a total of 699 million and generating an estimated $476 billion.

The Greater Caribbean’s share in this business is roughly 4 percent. In 16 countries of the region, tourism is the largest earner of foreign exchange.

But even before September 11, it was clear that 2001 was not going to be a good year for the international tourism industry. The point was made by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) in its initial analysis of the effects of September 11 on world tourism, a document considered at an extraordinary meeting of the ACS Special Committee on Sustainable Tourism held in Caracas, Venezuela last week.

 Prior to September 11, the forecast 2001 growth of international tourism had been cut to 2-3 percent, less than half the previous year’s growth. The slowdown in the US economy and decline in the stock market were the main contributing factors

The WTO has shaved its 2001 growth forecast by a further 1.5 percent to take account of the impact of September 11. But this assumes no “new and extraordinary developments” that will further affect people’s willingness to travel. The only thing that is certain for now is the fact of uncertainty.

The challenge for the Greater Caribbean region is to develop effective coping strategies for the industry to deal with a situation for which there is no precedent in its history as a tourist destination. That is due to two factors: the United States, where the fear of flying is greatest, is the region’s largest single tourism market; in addition, the region is geographically adjacent to the United States, which is seen by European travelers as a potentially unsafe destination.

During periods of armed conflict, according to the WTO report, tourists avoid the areas of conflict and those perceived as being close at hand. Interregional traffic falls and tourists shift to alternative locations within their own region or country. These trends were observed during the Gulf War in 1991 and the Kosovo conflict in 1999.  

This suggests three elements in Greater Caribbean coping strategies. First, persuade US tourists that the region is a safe, “close to home” alternative to traveling further afield. Second, persuade non-US tourists that the region is a distinct destination and travel experience in its own right that is not subject to the same safety concerns affecting the US. Third, promote intra-regional travel within the Greater Caribbean: a regional holiday is both foreign and close to home.

It calls for three kinds of marketing and promotion strategies: one for the United States market, another for non-US markets especially Europe and South America, and a third within the Greater Caribbean itself. In addition, security on airlines and at airports and hotels will become, more than ever before, intrinsic components of the tourist product, requiring special programmes and services.

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Prof. Norman Girvan is Secretary General of the Association of Caribbean States. The views expressed are not necessarily the official views of the ACS.