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Central America in 2002: coffee crisis; remittances to the rescue

The Greater Caribbean This Week

Norman Girvan

In common with most of the Latin American and Caribbean region, Central America experienced a year of economic stagnation in 2002 (see accompanying table). GDP growth was barely sufficient to keep pace with population growth. Three of the five registered a fall in per capita income; the other two (Costa Rica and El Salvador) registering a marginal increase.

 

Costa Rica continues to be the best performing economy of the sub-region. With its diversified export economy and its successful thrust into eco-tourism, it was best placed to withstand the effects of the economic downturn in the US economy and in world tourism in 2002. Economic activity was sustained by increased exports and domestic investment and by government spending; the latter at the cost of a widening public sector deficit.

The total exports of goods and services of the other four fell by US$282 million or 2.5 percent. This fed through their economies in terms of investment, government spending, and growth.

The problem lies not only in the volume of export sales, but the terms of trade. Since 1995 the price of exports relative to the price of imports has fallen by 6.5 percent for Costa Rica, 20.8 percent for El Salvador, 18.2 percent for Guatemala, 1.2 percent for Honduras, and 29.5 percent for Nicaragua.

A large part of this is due to the collapse in world market prices for coffee, a major traditional export commodity of the sub-region.

However, remittances are a significant source of foreign exchange in Central America. In relation to exports, current transfers (mainly remittances) are 53 percent in El Salvador, 44 percent in Guatemala, 32 percent in Honduras and 41 percent in Nicaragua. Inflows from remittances are several times greater than foreign investment.

The total amount sent home by Central Americans living abroad increased in 2002. Like the island Caribbean, this would have helped to cushion the impact of the economic downturn on poor households.


Central America Economic Indicators 2001-2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 Costa Rica

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras
Nicaragua

2001

2002

2001

2002

2001

2002

2001
2002
2001
2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

       
GDP % Change

1.0

2.8

1.9

2.3

2.4

1.0

2.7

2.0

3.0

0.5

GDP per capita % Change

-1.2

0.7

0

0.4

-0.3

-0.7

0.1

-0.6

0.3

-2.1

Exports goods & services US$MN

6820

7158

3977

3870

3896

3809

2447

2371

919

906

Net Foreign Investment US $M

445

424

277

317

450

110

195

179

132

171

Current Transfers US$M *

148

155

2004

2049

997

1680

871

760

336

375

Gross Fixed Investment % change

3.7

7.9

0.2

3.0

1.7

6.0

-3.3

-3.7

-3.2

3.5

Inflation %

11

10

1.4

1.4

8.9

6.3

8.8

7.7

4.7

4.2

Urban unemployment %

5.8

6.8

7.0

7.1

n.a.

n.a.

5.9

6.2

10.7

12.9

Public sector balance % GDP

-2.9

-4.3

-3.6

-2.7

-2

-1.1

7.3

-5.2

11.5

-9

Terms of Trade (1995=100)

94.5

93.5

80.2

79.2

82.9

81.8

101.6

98.8

70.9

70.5

Balance of Payments US$MN

-152

13

-178

-30

-474

-75

16

124

-266

-275

* Mainly remittances
n.a. = Not available

 

Source: ECLAC data

Professor Norman Girvan is Secretary General of the Association of Caribbean States. The views expressed are not necessarily the official views of the ACS. Feedback can be sent to mail@acs-aec.org.

January 19, 2003

 

Read previous columns:  

 COLUMNS

DATES

Tough Times in The Group of 3 January 10, 2003
The lost half decade in Latin America and the Caribbean January 3, 2003
2002: Crime and corruption top the political agenda December 27, 2002
From Nafta to Cafta December 20, 2002
Ibero-Americans Mull Secretariat December 13, 2002
Cuba, CARICOM Cement Ties December 9, 2002
ACS raises $1.1 Million December 3, 2002
ACS meets in Belize November 22,
Flood, Sweat and Tears November 15, 2002
Can Caribbean Tourism be Reinvented? November 11, 2002
Wilton Park Conference on Cuba November 1, 2002
Caribbean-Central America Trade October 26, 2002
Two Thirds Of Central Americans Favour Regional Integration October 21, 2002
Facilitating OCT Cooperation October 11, 2002
Europe's Remaining Dependencies October 4, 2002
Be Offensive in Services September 27, 2002
Services In The Island Caribbean: Neglect Them At Your Peril September 20, 2002
Caricom's Trade Negotiations: A Daunting Agenda September 13, 2002
Regional Cooperation in the Private Sector August 31, 2002
National Politics, Regional Economics August 23, 2002
Economic Contraction and Fiscal Crisis in the OECS August 16, 2002
South American Summit: A Strategic Opportunity August 9, 2002
Human Development in the Caribbean August 2, 2002
Problems with UNDP Governance Indicators July 26, 2002
Relaunch of Central American Integration July 19, 2002
The Caribbean Sea is special July 12, 2002
CARICOM and the ACS July 5, 2002

Treatment of Small Economies

June 28, 2002

Economic Performance in the Island Caribbean

June 21, 2002

Rum Talk

June 14, 2002
Multidimensional vs. Military Security June 7, 2002
EU-LAC Summit: Side Shows and Hidden Agendas May 27, 2002
US Farm subsidies will impact the Greater Caribbean May 17, 2002

Globalization not just Economics

May 10, 2002

Tourism must be Sustainable

May 2, 2002

Eu-lac Summit: Civil Society involvement

April 26, 2002
The EU and Central America: Conflicting Agendas April 19, 2002
Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean: a Fragmented Partnership April 12, 2002
Early warning for Natural Disasters April 5, 2002
Monterrey Summit: Promises, Promises? March 28, 2002
NAFTA Parity:Certain Restrictions Apply March 22, 2002
Private Sector Mobilises March 15, 2002
The Future is Here March 8, 2002
Humanising the FTAA March 1, 2002
US-Central America Free Trade Talks February 22, 2002
Carnival realising the potential February 12, 2002
Bridging Caricom and Central America February 6, 2002
Special and Differential Treatment and the WTO February 1, 2002
Protecting the Caribbean sea January 24, 2002
Thinking the unthinkable - nuclear shipments January 17, 2002
Caribbean airline cooperation - A $60 million question January 12, 2002
A matter of Freedom January 4, 2002
Towards the greater Caribbean zone of cooperation December 27, 2001
Opec funding and the ACS December 20, 2001
Consolidating the Greater Caribbean December 13, 2001
Meeting in Margarita December 7, 2001
Aids, Anthrax and the WTO November 29, 2001
The Dilemma of the DOHA: New Round or No? November 22, 2001
Rescuing Caribbean Tourism pt. 2 November 15, 2001
Rescuing Caribbean Tourism pt. 1 November 9, 2001
Business Co-operation and Caribbean Trade
 

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