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TERRORISM, TOURISM AND TRADE The Greater Caribbean This Week By Norman Girvan The awful events of September 11, 2001 have proven that the region of the Greater Caribbean is as vulnerable to the consequences of international terrorism as anywhere else. The region has a strong interest in ensuring that the international response is carefully crafted to minimise the risk of recurrence of such events in the future. At least 160 nationals from 15 countries of the insular Caribbean, Guyana and Central America are now known to be among the dead, missing or unaccounted for at the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon. Several hundred more are on the list from Mexico, Colombia and Venezuela. The victims came from all walks of life, from financial sector professionals to waiters, cleaning workers and office attendants. The region’s airlines have been badly hit. In the days following the attacks Aeromexico and Mexicana together lost $16 million, Air Jamaica $11 million. Other carriers are counting the cost of service disruptions, cancellations, traffic decline, increased security and higher insurance rates. Services have been cut, and Governments—read taxpayers--will be asked for financial assistance. The fall-out on tourism will be severe. Tourism is the single largest earner of foreign exchange in 16 of 28 countries in the region. One survey conducted in the US days reported that half of business travellers and 60 percent of leisure travellers plan to take fewer overseas trips as a result of the bombings. Airfares will go up. Some industry sources are predicting a one-third decline in holiday travel through the rest of the year. Hoteliers around the Caribbean are reporting steep falls in occupancy rates and planned lay-offs. The outlook for the up-coming winter season is bleak, not least because of the uncertainty about what happens next. The region’s exports will be affected. A total of 46 percent of CARICOM’s merchandise exports go to the US, 88 percent of the Dominican Republic’s, about a half for Colombia, Venezuela, Panama and Central America; and over 80 percent for Mexico. A US recession, which is widely expected, will impact on the 14 percent of its total imports that the US sources in the region. Access to the US capital market has also been reduced: at least one regional Government has postponed a planned million bond placement in New York. The region’s governments are taking steps to tighten security at airports and other vulnerable spots. But terrorism is a global problem; and many countries in the region have been grappling for years with internal violence associated with the illegal drugs and arms trade. The real issue for the region is what kind of approach to the problem of global terrorism it will support, and lobby for. Punitive action and reliance on military methods will likely fuel global terrorism and heighten international tension. Among other things, this is bad for the tourism, trade and investment on which the Caribbean depends, and will delay recovery. The alternative is to call for combining additional security measures with careful investigation and apprehension of those responsible. It calls for adherence to the international rule of law and working to achieve a genuine international consensus based on strengthening the United Nations system. It calls for much greater attention to securing a political resolution to long-standing problems in the world’s trouble spots. The region should consider carefully what kind of approach will best serve its interest in having a secure and peaceful international environment. September 20, 2001 Norman Girvan is Secretary General of the Association
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